Page 284 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_PUNJABI

smStI ArQSwsqr dy isDWq

È؇ ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW Aqy ivilps vkr (Rational Expectations and the Phillips Curve)
PRIfmYn rwhI pRiqpwidq iPilps vkr dI qvirq pirklpnw (accelerationist hypothesis) iv`c byrojgwrI
Aqy sPIiq dy iv`c QoVy smy dw ivinmX (trade-off) qW hY pr lMmy smy dw ivinmX nhI hY[ iesdw kwrx ieh
hY ik sPIiqkwrI pRqXwSwvW sPIiq ƒ ipClI pRiviriq qy AwDwirq hodI hY ijnW dI B`ivKvwxI ieko vwr shI
nhI kIqI jw skdI[ ikauik sPIiq dI sMBwivq dr ausdI vwsqivk dr qo sdw pICy rihdI hY, iesleI sdw
iek Avloikk (observed) kMmI pweI jWdI hY[ sPIiq dI sMBwivq dr ƒ vwsqivk dr nwl smwXoijq krx
dy leI pwihlw AviD iv`c Avloikq kMmI dy kuJ Anupwq ƒ joxky pwihlI AviD iv`c hox vwlI sPIiq dy AnuBv
muqwbk iesdI sMbwivq dr dw dubwrw inirSx kIqw jwdW hY[
ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW dy sMbD ArQSwSqirAW ny lMmy smy dy dorwx vI sPIiq Aqy byrojgwrI dy iv`c ivinmX
rihx dI sMbwvnw qo ienkwr kIqw hY[ auhnW dy muqwbk, PRIfmYn dy ies kQn iv`c AMqinihq ieh Dwrxw
Avwsqivk hY ik kImq pRqXwSwvW mu`Krup iv`c ipClI sPIiq dy AnuBv dy AwDwr qy bnweI jWdI hY[ jdo lok
ApxI kImq pRqXwSwvW ƒ ies minAwqW dy AwDwr qy rKdy hn qW auh AivvykI hody hY[ jykr auh v`DdI hoeI
kImqW dy dorwx ieho ijhw socdy hn qW ieh pwvxgy ik auh glq sn[ pr ivvykpurx lok ieho ijhI glqI nhI
krdy, blik auh BwvI sPIiq dI bjwey v`d TIk v`ivKvwxI krx iv`c swrI aplbD jwxkwrI dw pRXog kwrgy[

iPilps vkr dy sMbD iv`c ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW dw ivcwr icqr 30.1 iv`c pyS kIqw igAw hY[ mMn lyvo ik
byrogjgwrI dI dr 3 pRiqSq Aqy sPIiq dI dr 2 pRiqSq hY[ AsI SPC vkr qy ibMdu A qo SUru krdy hn[
1
byrojgwrI G`t krx dy leI srkwr mudrw purqI dI dr v`D dydI hY, ijQy nwl kImqW v`DxI Suru ho jWdI hY[
rytyks pirklpxw dy muqwbk, PrmW dI kImqW dy Awm p`Dr dI bjwey Apxy audXog dI kImqW dy bwry iv`c
ApySwkirq v`D jwxkwrI hwzwr hn[ iehdw ieh socxw isrP iek Bul hY ik kImqW iv`c viriD auhdI vsquAW
dI mMg iv`c viriD dy kwrx hoeI hY[ iesdy pirxwmsvrup, auqpwdn v`Dwx dy leI auh v`D vrkrW ƒ rojgwr qy
lWdy hn, ijdy nwl byrojgwrI G`t ho jWdI hY[ vrkr vI kImqW iv`c viriD ƒ Apxy audXog nwl sMbiDq mwnx
dI Bul krdy hn[ pr jdo SrimkW dI mMg v`DdI hY qW mjdUrI v`DdI hY Aqy vrkr modirk mjdUrI dI viriD ƒ
vwsqivk mjdUrI dI viriD mMn lYdy hY[ ies qrW ArQ-ivvsQw QoVy smy dy iPilps vkr SPC qy A ibMdu qo
1
B ibMdu qo au`qy dI Aor cleI jWdI hY[ pr CyqI hI vrkr Aqy PrmW ieh pWdy hn ik swry audXogW iv`c kImqW
Aqy mjduirAW iv`c viriD ho geI hY[ PrmW ieh vI pWdI hY ik auhnW dI lgqW v`D geI hY[ sPIiq iv`c
4 pRiqSq viriD dy nwl hI vrkr ieh mhSus krky hY ik auhnW dI vwsqivk mjdUirAW G`t ho geI hY Aqy
aouh mjdUrI v`Dwx dy leI dbwv pWdy hn[ ies qrW, srkwr dI mudrw nIqI dy kwrx ArQ-ivvsQw iv`c sPIiq
dI dr v`D jWdI hY[ pirxwmsvrup, SPC vkr qy ieh ibMdu B qo C dI Aor clw jWdw hY joVI byrojgwrI dr
2
3 pRiqSq hY ijQy srkwr rwhI ivsqwrk modirk nIqI Apxwx qo pihlW dy brwbr hY[
jd srkwr dubwrw mudwr-sPIiq v`Dwky rojgwr G`t krx dw
dubwrW Xqn krdI hY qW auh aun krmcwirAW Aqy PrmW ƒ murk
nhI bxw skdI jyvI hux ArQ-ivvsQW iv`c lgqW Aqy kImqW
dI giqiviDAW qy nzr kKxgy[ jykr PrmW ApxI vsquAW dI
lwgqW dy nwl nwl kImqW iv`c viriD dI kmnW krdI hY qW auh
Apxw aqpwdn v`Dwx dI cyStw nhI krygI jYsw ik SPC vrk
1
dy mwmly iv`c hoieAW[ ijQy q`k vrkrW dw svwl hY, Srm sMgTn
ArQ-ivvsQw iv`c v`DdI hoeI kImqW dy muqwbk mjdUrI v`Dwx dI
mMg krxgy[ jdo srkwr modirk pRSwrx (Aqy rwjkoSIX) nIqI
ƒ cwlU rKdI hY qW vrkrW Aqy PrmW ƒ iesdI Awdq ho jWdI
hY[ auhnW dw AnuBv hI auhnW dI pRqXwSwvW bx jWdw hY[ AKwr
iv`c jdo srkwr dubwrw ies qrW dI nIqI ApnwdI hY qW Prm
ApxI vsquAW dI kImqW, pRqSwiSq sPIiq ƒ byAsr krx dy
leI v`Dw dydI hY qwik aqpwdn Aqy rojgwr qy iesdw pRBwv n icqr 30.1

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