Page 283 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_PUNJABI

iekweI-30: ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW dI pirklpnw

jykr AsI ieh mMn ky cwiley ik AwriQk eyjyNj pRqXwSwvW dw inrmwx krdy vyly sucnwvW (informations) È؇
dw kuSl Aqy iestqm apXog krdy hn qW auh pRqXwSwvW dy iek ieho ijhy isDWq dI rcxw krdy hY ijdy nwl
apBogqw Aqy aqpwdk dy pRqXwiSq kImq bdlwv qy AwDwirq pRiqikirAW auhnw dy vwsqivk kImq bdlwvW
iv`c AwDwirq pRiqikirAW qy inrBr krdI hY[ mUQ dw kihxw hY ik kuJ pRqXwSwvW ien BwvW qo ivvykpurx hY
ik pRqXwSwvW Aqy GtnwvW iek Aivcwirq (random) kMmI dy kwrx qo v`K hodI hY[
mUQ dI ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW dI klpxw vXiSt ArQSwSqr nwl sMbiDq hY[ iedy nwl bhuq swry ArQSwSqrI
sMquSt nhI sn[ iesleI ieh 10 swlW q`k inSikirAW rwhI[ 1970 dy swl iv`c sUruAwq iv`c rw`brt lUks,
Qwms swrjyNt (Thomas sargent) Aqy nIl vYls (Neil Wallace) ny ies ivcwr dw pRXog smStI ArQSwSqr
nIqI dI smisAwvW dy leI kIqw[

’∆ Âπ√ƒ ‹≈‰Á∂ ‘Ø mUQ dI ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW dI klpxw vXStI ArQSwSqr nwl sMbiDq hY[

30.3 ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW dI pirklpnw dI mul p@sQwpnwvW
(Basic Propositions of Rational Expectations Hypothesis)

rytyks pirklpnw mwndI hY ik AwriQk eyjNyt Apxy kol aplbD swrI AwriQk sucnw dw pRXog krky kImqW,
Awmdn Awid vrgy AwriQk crW (variables) dy BwvI mulW dI pRqXwSwvW dw inrmwx krdy hn[ ieh sucxw
ivSySkr srkwr dI modirk Aqy rwjkoSIX nIiqAW vrgy AwriQk crW nwl juVy hoey sMbDW ƒ Apxy nwl Swml
krdI hY[ ies qrW pRqXwSwvW bnwx vwly ieh mwndy hn ik AwriQk eyjytW ƒ B`ivK dI GtnwvW dy bwry iv`c
purI Aqy TIk jwxkwrI huMdI hY[ mUQ dy muqwbk, jwxkwrI ƒ iksy hor durlB sMswDwn dI qrW smJxw cwihdw
hY[ iehdy Alwvw ivvykpurx AwriQk eyjytW ƒ ApxI pRqXwSwvW bMndy smy AwriQk pRxwlI nwl sMbD iv`c Apxy
igAwn dw pRXog krxw cwihdw hY[ iesleI rytyks dI pirklpnw ieh mMndI hY ik ivAkiqgq AwriQk eyjyt
pRqXwSwvW ƒ bxwdy smy purI aplbD Aqy susNgq jwxkwrI dw pRXog krdy hn Aqy auh ies sucxw ƒ Awpxy
ivvyk nwl iqAwr krdy hn[ ieh mwnnw m`hqvpurx hY ik rytyks, apBogqw Aqy PrmW dy purI qrW durdrSI
hox jW auhnW dI pRqSwSwvW sdw hI hox dw pyS nhI krdI hY[ ieh sMkyq krdw hY ik eyjyt ipClI kMimAW qy
ivcwr krdy hn Aqy jykr lox pwvy qW ieho ijhI kMimAW ƒ dubwrw rokx dy leI Apxy pRqSwiSq ivvhwr dw
dubwrw inirSx krdy hn[ iesleI ieho ijhy Anumwn ieh sMkyq idqy hn ik eyjyNt inXimq p@qXwiSq kMimAW
ƒ dur krx iv`c sPl hody hY qwik hwzr jwxkwrI iv`c ieho ijhI kimAW Aosqn n Aw skx[
rytyks pirklpnw AwriQk (modirk, rwjkoSIX Aqy Awmdn) nIiqAW qy lwgu kIqI jWdI hY[ ivvykpurx
pRqXwSwvW lgwx vwilAW ƒ siQrIkrx nIiqAW dI QoVy smy dI ApRBwvSIlqw (Ineffectiveness) ƒ ivKwaudW
hY[ auhnW dy muqwbk, AwriQk (modirk, rwjkoSIX Aqy Awmdn) nIiqAW iv`c bdwlv hox nwl ArQ-ivvsQw
qy iehdy pYx vwly pRBwvW dI v`D sucwxw iksy ƒ vI nhI hMudI[ ivSyS rup qy, iesdw Bwv mMdI ƒ inXMqirk krn
dy leI smStI AwriQk nIiqAW ijvy kr ktoqI krxw, srkwrI Krc v`Dwxw, mudrw purqI v`Dwxw jW Gw`ty dw
bjt bnwxw Awid qy rok lgwxw hY[ auhnW dw kihxw hY ik jnqw ny ipCly AnuBvW qo ieh is`K ilAw hY ik
srkwr ieh ijhI nIiqAW dw Anusrx krygI[ iesleI srkwr iehnW dy pRBwvW ƒ Apxwky jnqw ƒ byvkUP nhI
bxw skdI hY Aqy ieho ijhI nIqI dw sMkyq isrP vI jnqw dI Aor qo ivAwpk pRiqckrIX (countercyclical)
pRiqkoSIX dI pRqXwSwvW pYdw krdI hY[ ies qrW rytyks pirklpnw dy muqwbk, srkwr dI modirk Aqy rwjkoSIX
nIiqAW dy bwry ivc lok Anumwn lgwdy hn Aqy AwriQk PYsly krdy vyly auhnW dI Aor iDAwn dydy hn[ iehdy
pirxwmsvrup, jdo q`k srkwrI nIiqAW dy sMkyq imldy hn, jnqw auhnW qo pwihlw qo hI kMm kr cukI hodI
hY Aqy auhnW dy pRBwv Kqm ho jWdy hn[ dUjy SbdW iv`c, rytyks pirklpnw ieh dsdI hY ik lokW dy AwriQk
ivvhwr iv`c hI nIqI cwly bdlwv ilAwdI hY ijnW dI aumId nhI kIqI jWdI Aqy auhnW dy cwlU hox dI pRqSwSw
hodI hY qW ieh lokW dy AwriQk ivvhwr iv`c bdwlv ilAw skdI hY’[

LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY 277