Page 282 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_PUNJABI

smStI ArQSwsqr dy isDWq

È؇ pRiqAwSwvW auhnW AinSicq AwriQk crW dy sMdrB ivc iksy AwriQk eyjyMt rwhIN kIqy gey pUrvwnUmwn jW
Biv`KvwxIAw huMdIAW hn jo as dy inrxX nwl sMbiDq hodI hY[ purvwnumwn Buq (past) dI pRiviriqAW dy
nwl nwl vrqmwn sucxw Aqy AnuBv qy AwDwirq hMudy hn[AwriQr isDWq dw mu`K ih`sw AwriQr eyjoNto (Bwv
apBokqw, aqpwdk Awid) rwhI pRqXwSwvW dy inrmwx iv`c auhnW dy ivvykSIl ivvhwr dI mwinAqw qy AwDwirq
hY[ pr Ajy q``k ArQSwSqrI mnu`K ivvhwr dy mwp iv`c pRqXwSwvW dI Buimkw ƒ Swml nhI kr pwdy hY[ kynj
ny pRqXwSwvW dy m`hqv dI crcw kIqI pr auh ies g`l qy cup sn ik auhnw dw inrmwx iks qrW hMudw hY[

È؇√ ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW dw ivcwr s`b qo pwihlW jw`n muQ rwhI 1961 iv`c pyS kIqw
igAw, ijny ieh ivcwr ienjIinXrI swihqX qo ilqw sI[

hwl dy swlW iv`c ArQSwSqrI ny mofl inrmwx dy AnukUlI pRqXwSwvW dI pirklpxw dw ivAwpk pRXog kIqw
hY[ ies sNdrB iv`c 1956 iv`c kYgn (Cagen) aqy 1957 iv`c nyrlov (Nerlove) rwhI kIqw igAw kMm sb
qo ijAwdw m`hqvpurx sI[ AnukUlI pRqXwSw pirklpnw dy muqwbk, AwriQk eyjNyto dI pRqXwSw hodI hY ik
B`ivK vI inSicq hI Buq dI pRiviriqAW dy muqwbk hovygw[ auh kImq Awmdn ijvy AwriQk crW dy B`ivK mu`l
ƒ aunhW dy Buq mu`l nwl Aosq rup iv`c hox Aqy izAwdw hI holI giq nwl auhnW dy bdlwv hox dI pRqXwsW
krdy hn[ AwriQk eyjyt ien crW dy pRqXwiSq mu`l auhnW dy vrqmwn Aqy Buq mu`lW nwl Bwirq (weighted)
Aosq dy brwbr kr iddy hn[ auh ApxI pRqXwSwvW ƒ ipClI purvwnumwn kMmI dy muqwbk bdlv krdy hn[
ipCly ivvhwrW dy pirxwmsvrup hoeI kMimAW pRqXwSwvW dy inrmwx dy leI sucnw dy iek m`hqvpurx sroqr
dw sNkyq krdI hY[ pr ieho ijhI pRqXwSwvW ien minAqwvW qy AwDwirq hodI hY ik AwriQk eyjNyt aun BulW
ƒ bhuq G`t bdlwv hox dI pRqXwSw krdy hn[ iesleI jdo AwriQk nIqI iv`c bdlwv hMudw hY qW iedy nwl
ibnW kMm dy purvwnumwn huMdy hn[
audwhrx dy leI, AnukUlI pRqXwSw pirklpnw dy muqwbk AwriQk eyjyt, B`ivK dI sPIiq drW dI pRqXwSwvW
dw inrmwx pwihlW AnuBv hoeI Aosq sPIiq drW dy Bwirq Aosq nwl krdy hn Aqy jykr vwsqivk sPIiq
pRqXwiSq sPIiq v`Krw hox vwlI hodI hY qW auh smy smy qy aun pRqXwSwvW iv`c bdlwv krdy hn[ ieh AwriQk
eyjytW dy AivvykI (irrational) ivvhwr ƒ pyS krdw hY[ lMmy smy dw iPiPps vkr dw PRIfmYn dw ivSlySx AnukUlI
pRqXwSW pirklpxw qy AwDwirq hY[ PRIfmYn dI qvrx (acceleration) pirklpnw iv`c minXqw hY ik kImq
pRqXwSwvW mu`K rup iv`c pwihlW dI sPIiq dy AnuBv qy AwDwirq hodI hY, Avwsqivk hY[ jdo AwriQk eyjytW dI
kImq pRqXwSwvW ies minXwqW qy AwDwirq hodI hY qW auh AivvykI hody hn[ jykr auh v`DdI kImqW dI siQiq
iv`c ieho ijhw socdy hn qW Apxy ƒ glt pwxgy[ iesdw kwrx hY ik pRqXwSwvW dw inrmwx kyvl pwihlW dy
poRjyksn (projections) nwl hI nhI, blik v`ivK dy is`Dy purvwnumwnW nwl vI huMdw hY[ lokW dI pRqXwSwvW
dw AwDwr ipCly kImq bdlwvW dy nwl nwl keI GtkW dy sMbD iv`c vrqmwn sucnwvW vI hMudI hY[ ies qrW,
ivvykSIl B`ivK dI sPIiq dw v`D qyjI nwl purvwnumwn krx dy leI swry aplbD sucnwvW dw pRXog krdy hY[

√ÚÀ ÓπÒª’‰ (Self Assessment)

irkq QwvW ƒ Bro (Fill in the blanks):
1. jdo AwriQk nIqI iv`c bdlwv huMdw hY qW iedy nwl ibnW kMm dI …………………… hody hn[

2. rytysk pirklpnw ………………… qy lwgU hodI hY[

30.2 ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW (Rational Expectations)

ivvykpurx pRqXwSwvW dw ivcwr s`b qo pwihlW jw`n muQ rwhI 1961 iv`c pyS kIqw igAw, ijny ieh ivcwr
ienjIinXirNg swihqX qo ilqw sI[ auhnW dw mofl mu`K bwjwr dI mofilg kImq giqiviDAW dy bwry iv`c sI

276 LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY