Page 15 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

bdkbZ—1% lkaf[;dh dh ifjHkk"kk % lkaf[;dh dk egÙo] foLrkj rFkk bldh lhek,¡¡

leku gS rks ;g fu"d"kZ fudkyk tk ldrk gS fd nksuksa gh m|ksx lkekU; o ,d gh izÑfr osQ gSa ijUrq ;fn muls uksV
lEcfU/r lHkh leadksa (vFkkZr~ izR;sd o"kZ osQ ykHk lead) dk vè;;u fd;k tk, rks ;g fu"d"kZ fudky ldrk
gS fd ,d m|ksx dk ykHk c<+ jgk gS vFkkZr~ mUufr dh vksj vxzlj gS vkSj nwljs m|ksx dk ykHk ?kV jgk gS
vFkkZr~ voufr dh vksj vxzlj gSA MkW- ckmys osQ vuqlkj] ¶tks fo|kFkhZ leadksa dk mi;ksx djrk gS mls
vuqlU/ku osQ fu"d"kks± dks izekf.kr ekudj lUrq"V ugha gks tkuk pkfg,] ijUrq ml fof/ osQ leLr vaxksa dk
i;kZIr Kku izkIr djuk pkfg,A¸
5. lkaf[;dh; fu;e osQoy vkSlr :i ls vkSj nh?kZdky esa gh lR; gksrs gSa (Statistical laws are true
in the long run and on the average)μlkaf[;dh osQ fu;e izkÑfrd foKku osQ fu;eksa dh rjg iw.kZ lR; ugha
gksrs gSa vFkkZr~ lHkh ifjfLFkfr;ksa esa ykxw ugha gksrs gSa vFkkZr~ ;s osQoy nh?kZdky esa vkSlr :i ls lkewfgd :i
esa gh [kjs mrjrs gSaA mnkgj.k osQ fy,] HkkSfrd es xq#Roh; fu;e osQ vuqlkj] Åij ls fxjkbZ xbZ oLrq lnSo i`Foh
ij gh vkrh gS ;k jlk;u esa lksfM;e osQ VqdM+s dks ikuh esa Mkyus ls vkx yx tkrh gS ;k tho'kkL=k esa eknk
,ukfiQyht ePNj osQ dkVs fcuk eysfj;k ugha gks ldrk lHkh ifjfLFkfr;ksa esa iw.kZ:i ls lR; gSaA ijUrq ;fn
lkaf[;dh osQ izkf;drk ;k lEHkkouk fl¼kUr (Theory of Probability) bu fu;eksa dh rjg n`<+] iw.kZ vkSj lR;
ugha gSaA mnkgj.k osQ fy,] ;fn ,d FkSys esa j[kh dkyh] lisQn xsanksa dks ckgj fudkyus dh lEHkkouk vk/h&vk/
h vFkkZr~ 50 izfr'kr gksrh gS ;g rHkh lR; gksxk tc ,d ls vf/d ckj xsan fudkyh tk,A nl ckj xsan fudkyus
ij gks ldrk gS 7 ckj dkyh xsan ,oa 3 ckj lisQn xasn vk;s tcfd lEHkkouk 5-5 xssanksa dh FkhA xsan fudkyus
dh la[;k c<+krs tkus ij ;g lEHkkouk osQ fudV vkrk tkrk gSA vr% ;g fu;e fdlh fuf'pr ,d n`<+ vk/
kj dks izLrqr ugha djrk gSA vr% lkaf[;dh; fu;e osQoy nh?kZdky esa vkSlr :i ls gh lR; gksrs gSaA
6. leadksa esa ,d:irk ,oa ltkrh;rk gksuh pkfg, (Statistical data should be uniform and

homogeneous)μ'kq¼ ,oa lR; lkaf[;dh; fu"d"kZ izkIr djus osQ fy, ;g vko';d gS fd iz;ksx fd;s x;s
lead ,d:i ,oa ltkrh; gksaA vxj lead fofHkUu rjhdksa ls ,df=kr fd;s x;s fHkUu izÑfr osQ gSa rks bu
fotkrh; leadksa ls fudkys x;s fu"d"kZ ges'kk HkzekRed gksaxsA mnkgj.k osQ fy,] tula[;k ,oa izpfyr eqnzk uhfr
ls lEcfU/r leadksa esa dksbZ lg lEcU/ ugha gSA blh izdkj O;fDr dh Å¡pkbZ ,oa izfr O;fDr vk; osQ lead
Hkh fotkrh; gSa vkSj buesa lEcU/ LFkkfir djuk iw.kZ :i ls Hkzked gksxkA
7. lkaf[;dh dk iz;ksx osQoy fo'ks"kK gh dj ldrs gSa (Statistics can be used only by a perfect
statistician)μ;g lkaf[;dh dh lcls izeq[k lhek gS ftlosQ vuqlkj lkaf[;dh dk iz;ksx osQoy ogh O;fDr
dj ldrk gS tks lkaf[;dh; jhfr;ksa dk fo'ks"k Kku j[krk gksA vFkkZr~ leadksa dk mfpr :i ls ladyu]
fo'ys"k.k ,oa fuoZpu ogh O;fDr dj ldrk gS tks lkaf[;dh dk iw.kZ Kkrk ,oa lkaf[;dh; jhfr;ksa osQ iz;ksx es
n{k gksA v;ksX; ;k vufHkK O;fDr ladfyr leadksa ls xyr ,oa Hkzked fu"d"kZ fudkysaxsA ;s fu"d"kZ vlR; ,oa
v'kqf¼;ksa ls ifjiw.kZ gksaxsA ;wy vkSj osQUMky osQ vuqlkj] ¶v;ksX; O;fDr;ksa osQ gkFk esa lkaf[;dh; jhfr;k¡ vR;Ur
[krjukd vkStkj gSaA¸ blh izdkj dgk tkrk gS fd “Statistics, like medicine in the hands of quacks are

liable of easily being misused by ignorant or the inexperts.” vFkkZr~ tSls ,d v;ksX; fpfdRld osQ gkFk
esa nok tgj dk dke djrh gS] mlh izdkj v;ksX; O;fDr leadksa dk nq#i;ksx djosQ muls xyr ifj.kke fudky
ldrk gSA MkW- ckmys osQ vuqlkj] ¶lead osQoy ,d vko';d fdUrq viw.kZ vkStkj iznku djrs gSa tks mu yksxksa
osQ gkFkksa esa [krjukd gSa tks mudh iz;ksx fof/ vkSj dfe;ksa ls ifjfpr ugha gSaA¸
vUr esa ;g fu"d"kZ fudkyk tk ldrk gS fd lkaf[;dh; jhfr;ksa dk iz;ksx djrs le; lhekvksa dk è;ku j[kuk
pkfg,] ;fn bu lhekvksa dh mis{kk dh tk;sxh rks izkIr fu"d"kZ Hkzked ,oa vlR; gksaxs ftlosQ dkj.k lkaf[;dh
dks lUnsg dh n`f"V ls ns[kk tkrk gSA

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