Page 371 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

bdkbZμ26% izkf;drk dk fl¼kar% ifjp; ,oa mi;ksx

26-1 izkf;drk fl¼kUr dk izknqHkkZo ,oa fodkl (Origin and Development of uksV

Theory of Probability)

lkekU; thou esa lEHkkouk ;k izkf;drk (Probability) 'kCn dk iz;ksx izk;% feyrk gSA ijUrq okLro esa lEHkkouk
fl¼kUr osQ vè;;u dh izsj.kk lcls igys l=kgoha 'krkCnh esa ;wjksi esa tqvkfj;ksa (gamblers) ls izkIr gqbZ tks
HkkX; nsoh (Goddess fortune) ;k vUèkfo'okl ls fujk'k gksdj tq, esa thrus osQ voljksa ls lEcfUèkr leL;kvksa
osQ lekèkku osQ fy, rRdkyhu xf.krKksa dh lgk;rk ysrs FksA ml le; osQ izfl¼ xf.krKksa tSls xSfyyh;ks
(Galileo), ikLdy (Pascal), iQesZV (Fermat), dkjnsuks (Cardeno), vkfn us voljksa dh leL;k (Problem of
chances) dks lqy>kus esa xf.krh; vè;;u fd;s] ftlosQ dkj.k lEHkkouk fl¼kUr (Theory of Probability) dk
izknqHkkZo gqvkA
vBkjgoha 'krkCnh osQ vfUre Hkkx ,oa mUuhloha 'krkCnh esa lEHkkouk fl¼kUr Lo;a 'kkL=kh; #fp (academic
interest) dk fo"k; cu x;kA ykIykl (Laplace), xkWl (Gauss), Mh ek;ojs (De Moivre), fudksyl (Nicholas),
cuksZyh (Bernoulli), ;wyj (Euler), vkfn xf.krKksa us bl fl¼kUr dks fodflr dj foÙkh;] ty&LokLF;]
vk£Fkd] O;kolkf;d] jktuhfrd ,oa lSfud {ks=kksa dh leL;kvksa osQ Li"Vhdj.k ,oa lekèkku gsrq bldk iz;ksx
fd;kA chloha 'krkCnh esa vkj- ,- fiQ'kj (R.A. Fisher), dkyZ fi;lZu (Kark Pearson) rFkk ts- useSu
(Neyman) us lEHkkouk fl¼kUr ij vkèkkfjr U;kn'kZ fl¼kUr (Sampling theory) dk fodkl fd;k vkSj vkt
lEHkkouk fl¼kUr O;kid :i esa fo|eku gS ftldk vfuf'prrk osQ {ks=k esa lokZfèkd iz;ksx gksrk gSA
bekby cksjsy (Emile Borel) us Bhd gh dgk gS fd ¶lEHkkouk fl¼kUr dk egRo osQoy rk'k vFkok iklk
[ksyus okyksa tks fd blosQ tud dgs tkrs gSa] osQ fy, gh ugha gS oju~ mu lHkh dk;Z'khy O;fDr;ksa]
m|ksxksa osQ vè;{kksa] lsukuk;dksa] vkfn osQ fy, Hkh mudk egRo gS ftudh liQyrk fu.kZ;ksa ij fuHkZj
djrh gS tks Lo;a nks izdkj osQ dkjdksa ij fuHkZj djrh gSμizFke Kkr vFkok x.kuk ;ksX; rFkk nwljs
vfuf'pr rFkk lEHkkforA¸
izkf;drk ;k lEHkkouk fl¼kUr dk egRo mu {ks=kksa esa vfèkd gS tgka vfuf'prrk osQ okrkoj.k esa Hkkoh vuqeku
yxk;s tkrs gSaA fu%lUnsg HkkSfrd'kkL=k ,oa [kxksy'kkL=k dh rqyuk esa lEHkkouk fl¼kUr dk iz;ksx vk£Fkd ,oa
O;kikfjd {ks=k esa u;k gh gS] ijUrq lkaf[;dh foKku osQ foLrkj rFkk leadksa osQ vfèkdkfèkd iz;ksx osQ dkj.k bl
fl¼kUr osQ fodkl dh vk'kk vkSj c<+h gSA orZeku esa vk£Fkd ,oa O;kikfjd tfVyre leL;kvksa osQ la[;kRed
fo'ys"k.k esa lEHkkoukRed fofèk;ka vfuok;Z gksrh tk jgh gSaA fofoèk oSdfYid fu.kZ;ksa esa Js"Bre fu.kZ dk p;u
djuk gksrk gS] ftlosQ fy, vfuf'prrk dks la[;kRed :i ls O;Dr djuk vko';d gksrk gSA vkt thou dh
vfuf'prrkiw.kZ fØ;kvksa esa lEHkkouk fl¼kUr dk iz;ksx gh mi;ksxh gSA

uksV~l izkf;drk fl¼kar vkèkqfud xf.kr dh vR;Ur jkspd 'kk[kkvksa esa ls ,d gS vkSj Kku osQ fofoèk
{ks=kksa esa vius foLr`r vuqiz;ksxksa osQ dkj.k egÙoiw.kZ fl¼ gks pqdk gSA

26-2 izkf;drk dk vFkZ ,oa ifjHkk"kk (Meaning and Definition of Probability)

izkf;drk dk vFkZ gS fdμ¶?kVuk osQ ?kVus] ysfdu iw.kZ fuf'pr :i ls ugha dh lEHkkouk bl lacaèk esa izkf;drk
dh ifjHkk"kkvksa osQ vè;;u dks fuEu rhu fopkjèkkjkvksa esa foHkkftr fd;k tk ldrk gSμ
1- izkf;drk dh ijEijkoknh vFkok xf.krh; fopkjèkkjk (Classical or Mathematical Approach of
Probability)

LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY 365