Page 91 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_HINDI

bdkbZµ9% LFkk;h vk; vkSj thou pozQ ifjdYiuk

iru gqvk gS ftlls 'kgjhdj.k osQ lkFk miHkksx c<+k gSA blls k (dk ewY;) c<+k gSA nwljs] ifjokjksa dk vkdkj uksV
cgqr ?kVk gSA blls cpr c<+h gS vkSj miHkksx ?kVk gS ftlosQ ifj.kkeLo:i k dk ewY; de gqvk gSA rhljs] jkT;
dh vksj ls lkekftd lqj{kk dh vfèkd O;oLFkk dh xbZ gSA blls vfèkd cprsa j[kus dh vko';drk de gks
xbZ gSA blls vfèkd miHkksx dh izo`fÙk c<+h gS ftlosQ ifj.kkeLo:i k dk ewY; c<+k gSA bu izfrdkjh 'kfDr;ksa
dk oqQy izHkko ;g gS fd LFkk;h vk; Hkkx esa ifjorZu osQ vuqikr ls miHkksx c<+ tkrk gSA
bl izdkj] ÚhMeSu osQ vuqlkj] LFkk;h vk; vkSj miHkksx esa vkuqikfrd lacaèk gksrk gS]
C = k Y ....(4)
p
tgk¡ k vkuqikfrdrk dk xq.kkad gS ftlesa APC vkSj MPC var£ufgr gSa vkSj tks Åij o£.kr dkjdksa ij fuHkZj
djrk gSA nwljs 'kCnksa esa] ;g LFkk;h vk; dk og vuqikr gS ftldk miHkksx fd;k tkrk gSA
vc ge LFkk;h vk; dks ysrs gSa ftls ÚhMeSu dky Jsf.k;ksa (time series) osQ vkèkkj ij ;g ekurk gS fd og
va'kr% pkyw vk; vkSj va'kr% fiNyh vofèk;ksa dh vk; ij fuHkZj djrh gS (Permanent income depends
partly on current income and partly on previous periods’ income) A ;g bl izdkj ekih tk ldrh gS %
Y = a Y + (1 – a) Y ...(5)
pt t t–1
tgk¡ Y = orZeku vofèk esa LFkk;h vk;] Y = orZeku vofèk esa pkyw vk;_ Y fiNyh vofèk dh vk;_ a
pt t t–1
= fiNyh vofèk (t – 1) vkSj orZeku vofèk osQ chp vk; esa ifjorZu dk vuqikrA ;g lehdj.k crkrk gS fd
LFkk;h vk; orZeku vofèk dh vk; (Y ) vkSj fiNyh vofèk dh vk; (Y ) vkSj nksuksa osQ chp vk; ifjorZu
t t–1
osQ vuqikr (a) dk tksM+ gSA ;fn orZeku vk; ,dne c<+ tkrh gS rks LFkk;h vk; esa FkksM+h o`f¼ gksxhA LFkk;h
vk; osQ c<+us osQ fy, vk; dks fujarj dbZ o"kks± rd c<+kuk gksxkA fiQj yksx le>saxs dh og c<+h gSA
lehdj.k (4) vkSj (5) osQ lek;kstu ls vYidkyhu vkSj nh?kZdkyhu miHkksx iQyu dks fuEu izdkj ls O;Dr
fd;k tk ldrk gS %

Ct =KY = K a Y + K (1 – a) Y ...(6)
pt t t–1
tgk¡ C = orZeku vofèk dk miHkksx] ka = vYidkyhu MPC; k = nh?kZdkyhu MPC; vkSj (1 – a) Y
t t–1
vYidkyhu miHkksx iQyu dk fofPNUu (intercept) gSA
ÚhMeSu osQ vuqlkj k vkSj ka ,d nwljs ls fHkUu gksrs gSa vkSj k > ka A fiQj k yxHkx 1 (,d) osQ cjkcj gksrk
gS rFkk ka 'kwU; (0) osQA

lehdj.k (6) crkrk gS fd miHkksx fiNyh vk; vkSj orZeku vk; nksuksa ij fuHkZj djrk gSA miHkksx osQ fy,
fiNyh vk; blfy, egÙoiw.kZ gS D;ksafd ;g yksxksa dks Hkfo"; dh vk; dk iwokZuqeku yxkus esa lgk;d gksrh gSA

uksV~l pkyw ;k ekfir vk; miHkksx O;; dks fu/kZfjr djrh gSA

bldh ekU;rk,¡ (Its Assumptions)µÚhMeSu us vk; rFkk miHkksx osQ LFkk;h ,oa vLFkk;h Hkkxksa osQ chp lacaèkksa
osQ ckjs esa fuEu ekU;rk,¡ izLrqr dh gSaµ
(1) vLFkk;h rFkk LFkk;h vk; osQ chp dksbZ lglacaèk ugha gSA

(2) LFkk;h rFkk vLFkk;h miHkksx osQ chp dksbZ lglacaèk ugha gSA
(3) vLFkk;h miHkksx rFkk vLFkk;h vk; osQ chp dksbZ lglacaèk ugha gSA
(4) osQoy LFkk;h vk; esa gksus okys ifjorZu gh miHkksx dks O;ofLFkr :i ls izHkkfor djrs gSaA

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